When you look at the greatest political field generals in American history, names like Mark Hanna, Jim Farley, Bobby Kennedy, Lee Atwater, Jim Carville, and Kelly Anne Conway come to mind. All have run great efforts that culminated in solid victories. Also on that list is Karl Rove, who not only pulled off two presidential wins but did something few can claim: He gained seats in the House for Bush the Younger on his first midterm. Everyone else from Johnson to Trump lost seats, sometimes big losses, on their first congressional outing as president.

So the man should be listened to, with attention- not as a perfect barometer of result, when he talks about presidential politics. Here he is Tuesday on Fox on the battle for the group that could decide this election: White middle class voters in the Midwest.

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“The president yesterday went to Fulton County, which is a deep-red county outside of Toledo … the president was making a smart move here He wanted to get on Toledo TV but he didn’t want to be in Toledo itself, so he went to Fulton [County] right next door — in fact, the place where he was [is] literally right on the border between the two counties. And the margin he got in Fulton, Henry, Wood, Ottawa and Sandusky [counties] — all of which are around Toledo — more than offset what Hillary Clinton got in Lucas [County] and in Toledo [in 2016].

“So he appears in the red area and gets the benefit from appearing there and still gets the television coverage that emanates from Toledo,” Rove concluded.” A classic Trump move. Why pay for television ads when you can get the coverage for free?

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While there has been some discomfort over the years with Rovian analysis, he generally gets things right. Here’s an example.

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Biden also realizes the importance of this voting bloc, “Similar, Biden visited Manitowoc, Wis., located southeast of Green Bay in a county that went heavily for Trump four years ago. What he’s doing is he’s going into the Green Bay market, getting on Green Bay TV but reserving the right to get in and out of Green Bay [proper] later on in the campaign. Also … there [is] a lot of blue-collar heritage there in Manitowoc and he’s trying to reach back and grab some of those blue-collar, working-class people who voted for Donald Trump [in 2016] and bring them back into the Democratic column.”

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Battle they might but the president has the advantage. Biden is slow off the mark and his party represents everything working people hate. Trump’s economic policies have been geared towards the working class and his NASCAR cultural message, as opposed to the Democrats’ Tony Awards cultural message, plays very well in Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and possibly Minnesota. It won’t be a walk in the park. But the odds are the president holds on here.

This piece was written by David Kamioner on September 24, 2020. It originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

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