The situation just got more tense in the standoff between Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. The Russians have deployed 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. Now, NATO is in the act.

Russia has been trying to destabilize Ukraine for years by fomenting a civil war using Russian mercenaries on the Ukrainian eastern border. It has recently used Russian puppet Belarus to send thousands of unwanted refugees to Ukraine. Russia has been utilizing other methods including propaganda and subversion to bend Ukraine to its will. Why? Because Ukraine considers itself a Western nation and a European nation and ergo not in the Russian orbit.

But given traditional Russian paranoia, it doesn’t see Ukraine as a bridge between Russia and free Europe, but as another potentially hostile nation on its flank. Thus, it’s open season on Ukraine. Bravely, the French tried to arrest that process and recently said they would stand by Ukraine in the event of conflict. As of yesterday, NATO said it would do the same. That brings up the possibility of military action between NATO, namely us, and the Russians. This would not be across the Fulda Gap, as was once expected and I served in Germany to forestall, but much farther east. On the steps of Moscow itself.

It is interesting Biden would commit to this because when earlier asked about Ukraine and NATO membership he said, “It depends on whether they meet the criteria. The fact is, they still have to clean up corruption. The fact is, they still have to meet other criteria to get into the action plan. You know, school’s out on that question. It remains to be seen.” That statement is ironic indeed, as much of the corruption there centers on the Biden family.

How would a war in Ukraine play out? Hard to say. It recalls the old line that Russia is never as strong as she looks or as weak as she looks. Her Army is a paper tiger, only beating up little Georgia over the last two decades. But Belarus would join them in a Ukrainian attack. NATO has forces close in the Balts and in Eastern Europe. But enough to counter the Russians, given the logistical challenge of resupply? Again, iffy. What is not unknown is the climb up the escalation ladder this war could cause. It could get out of hand and quickly. As we are wont to say as of late, Admiral Joshua Painter, call your office.