The likely outcome of this November’s midterm election will be a solid Republican victory. With the economy tanking, high inflation, culture war losses, and Afghanistan around his neck, Joe Biden stands to lose the House and very possibly the Senate. This is nothing new, as Clinton, Obama, and Trump all lost Congress and took a general beating in their first midterms.

But Trump is still playing the big game and has a lot on the line this year. If his anointed candidates win his influence in the GOP increases and it makes it more likely he will run and win the Republican nomination in 2024.

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However, if he loses, if voters consider him yesterday’s news or want to get over his penchant for childish drama and loutish behavior, then others will take note and Republican knives could come out. That or Trump decides discretion is the better part of valor and he remains a kingmaker and nothing more.

Two races before the congressional midterms will be indicators on which way the decision will go. It is likely Trump endorsed candidates will win a number of races in November. But these two early races are against Trump’s self-created enemies. If they win it will tell the GOP Trump is vulnerable. He should have chosen easier targets.

Congresswoman Liz Cheney, Republican of Wyoming, is anathema to Trump and his minions. She forcefully came out against the January 6th riot and has been a thorn in Trump’s side for a while. But as has been said, all politics are local and Cheney right now is a smart bet for renomination and reelection.

Amid a record surge of illegal crossings at the border, the Biden Admin’s decision to rescind Title 42 is indefensible. It’s essential that we secure our border & protect the security of our nation. https://t.co/yGFvFk1Zv2

— Rep. Liz Cheney (@RepLizCheney) April 26, 2022

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She’s focusing on conservative ideas, Wyoming issues, and implicitly telling a state with an independent attitude that they don’t need advice from Trump on who to vote for. That may just work on August 16th and give a big boost to anti-Trump elements in the Republican Party.

Republican Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia is ten points ahead of Trump endorsed former Senator David Perdue in the May 24th GOP gubernatorial primary. Trump asked Kemp to cheat for him by “finding” votes in the 2020 general election. Kemp declined and has been on Trump’s hit list ever since. It is also ironic that Perdue wants Trump’s support, as the Trump intervention in his January 2021 runoff race cost Perdue his Senate seat and the Republicans control of the entire Senate.

Neither candidate is a lock and the Trump devotees will put up a hell of a fight. But if Cheney and or Kemp make it Trump will suffer a defeat that could keep him at Mar-a-Lago for some time to come. This writer’s view is that an outcome like that would be better for the Republicans, the country, and even Trump himself.