With the 2028 presidential election still 34 months away, early polling and prediction market data are already offering a glimpse into how the next Republican primary race could take shape.

According to recent analysis highlighted on CNN, Vice President J.D. Vance has emerged as the clear early favorite for the Republican presidential nomination, posting numbers that have surprised even veteran political analysts.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Monday that he was struck by how strongly Vance performed in a recent poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters when compared with other potential contenders, including former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nimarata “Nikki” Haley, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and several sitting and former elected officials.

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Enten pointed to prediction market data showing Vance far ahead of the rest of the field.

On Polymarket, Vance’s odds of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 stand at 54 percent.

The next closest contender on the platform, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is listed at 9 percent.

Similar results appear across other platforms. PredictIt reflects comparable confidence in Vance’s position, while the federally regulated prediction market Kalshi places Vance’s odds at 48 percent, with Rubio again trailing at 10 percent.

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“JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are like going around in go-karts at this point,” Enten said.

“That’s really what we are looking at. JD Vance is the clear, heavy favorite at this time.”

Enten said the early dominance shown in prediction markets is supported by polling data rather than speculation.

He cited a University of New Hampshire poll conducted in October that surveyed voters planning to participate in the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire.

According to the poll, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Vance.

Haley was a distant second at 9 percent, followed by Gabbard at 8 percent.

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders received 5 percent support, while Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky drew 4 percent.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy each received 3 percent support.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who was born in Calgary and has previously run for president, failed to reach 1 percent in the poll.

Cruz was among the candidates defeated by President Donald Trump during the 2016 and 2024 Republican primary contests.

“Take a look here! JD Vance at 51%!” Enten said while reviewing the poll results.

“The next closest is Nikki Haley, who’s at 9 — who’s at 9! I mean, what is that? That’s 42 points ahead of the pack.”

Enten added that the significance of New Hampshire’s early primary status helps explain why Vance’s numbers have translated so strongly into prediction market confidence.

“There’s a reason why he’s such a heavy favorite in the prediction market so far, because if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are, you’re going to be the Republican nominee for president,” he said.

When asked whether such a commanding early lead was unusual, Enten said it was historically rare.

“I looked back. Hitting 50% plus in the early New Hampshire polls for a non-sitting president — JD Vance is the only one,” he said.

“JD Vance is pulling off something historic at this time.”

JD Vance is like Mario Andretti & the rest of the GOP is going around in go karts when it comes to 2028.

Vance is the clear favorite to win the 2028 GOP nom. He’s the 1st ever non-sitting pres to get 50%+ in early New Hamp primary polls. Has a 40+ pt lead over the competition. pic.twitter.com/UJclcrJep0

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) December 29, 2025

Historically, recent vice presidents who have sought the presidency have fared well in their party primaries.

The last five sitting vice presidents who ran for president ultimately secured their party’s nomination.

Additional signs of Vance’s early strength emerged earlier this month at Turning Point USA’s annual AmericaFest, where a straw poll was conducted. Widowed CEO Erika Kirk publicly endorsed Vance during the event.

Blake Neff, a producer for “The Charlie Kirk Show,” said Vance won the AmericaFest straw poll by a larger margin than President Trump won a similar poll ahead of the 2024 election.

Neff noted that while 82.6 percent of respondents previously supported Trump as the GOP nominee, 84.2 percent said they wanted Vance to be the Republican nominee in 2028.

The same University of New Hampshire poll that showed Vance with majority support among Republican voters also suggested a more fragmented contest on the Democratic side.

Among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, 19 percent said they would support former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. California Gov. Gavin Newsom followed at 15 percent, with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14 percent.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris received 11 percent support, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont drew 8 percent, and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker registered 6 percent.

While the 2028 election remains years away, early polling and market indicators suggest that the Republican field is already coalescing around Vance in a way rarely seen this early in the cycle.

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